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Oak Hollow Medical Evaluation Center is a nonprofit agency offering multidisciplinary diagnostic services to study children with disabilities or developmental delays. The center can test each patient for physical, psychological, or social problems. Fees for services are based on an ability-to-pay schedule.
The evaluation center exists in a highly competitive environment. Many public-spirited organizations are competing for shrinking funds (i.e., Proposition 13 syndrome), and many groups such as private physicians, private and school psychologists, and social service organizations also are “competing” for the same patients. As a result of this situation, the center finds itself in an increasingly vulnerable financial position.
Mr. Abel, the director of the center, is becoming increasingly concerned with the center’s ability to attract adequate funding and serve community needs. Mr. Abel now must develop an accurate estimate of the future patient load, staffing requirements, and operating expenses as part of his effort to attract funding. To this end, the director has approached an operations management professor at the local university for assistance in preparing a patient, staffing, and budget forecast for the coming year. The professor has asked you to aid her in this project. Tables 17.8through 17.11give you some pertinent information.
Assignments
1. Given the information available and your knowledge of different forecasting techniques, recommend a specific forecasting technique for this study. Consider the advantages and disadvantages of your preferred technique, and identify what additional information, if any, Mr. Abel would need.
2. Develop forecasts for patient, staffing, and budget levels for next year.
