Analytic Epidemiology PT1 You have just finished a health education in-service to the community on the hazards of smoking. A representative of the tobacco industry is present at your in-service and makes the following comment regarding your presentation: "You gave a nice presentation. However, I disagree with you that smoking can cause lung cancer. There is still not enough evidence to indicate that smoking can cause cancer." Your task is as follows: 1. Respond to his statement and indicate why there is a cause-effect relationship between smoking and lung cancer using the five criteria for causality. 1. STRENGTH OF ASSOCIATION What is the relative risk or odds ratio for the exposure and the disease? A larger ratio means that the exposure more likely caused the disease. For example,if a study that you found on the internet states that individuals who smoked were 10 times more likely to develop lung cancer than individuals who did not, and they are referring to has an odds ratio or relative risk that is equal to 10. Recall that an odds ratio or relative risk that is equal to one means there is no difference. 2. DOSE-RESPONSE RELATIONSHIP According to studies (such as those on the internet), does increasing levels of exposure to the factor (such as smoking) result in a corresponding rise in disease? If there is a corresponding rise in occurrence of disease with increasing levels of exposure to a factor, it is more likely that there is a cause-effect relationship? 3. CONSISTENCY OF ASSOCIATION Has there been many studies indicating that there is an association between the exposure and the disease? If the same association is found using different study designs, different populations, and different settings, there is a consistency of association and it is more likely that there is a cause-effect relationship. 4. TEMPORALLY CORRECT ASSOCIATION Does the exposure occur before the onset of disease? The exposure must precede onset of illness. 5. BIOLOGICAL PLAUSIBILITY The association between the exposure and the disease must be plausible in terms of current knowledge about the factor and the disease. 2. What is your interpretation of the evidence on how smoking affects lung cancer? Assignment Expectations, in order to earn full credit: Please write your paper in your own words. That is the only way I can evaluate your level of understanding. Quotes are rarely needed; if necessary, they should comprise less than 10% of a paper and must be properly cited. Even though the papers must be written in your own words, you are required to cite sources for any statement of fact or idea that is not common knowledge. You must cite the sources within the body of the paper and include a reference list at the end of the paper. Note: Wikipedia is not an acceptable source of information. Use credible, professional, and scholarly sources such as journal articles from ProQuest or EBSCO, and government, university, or nonprofit organizations’ Web sites. You must clearly show that you have read the module homepage and the required background materials. You are welcome to do research in addition to -- but not instead of -- the required readings. Your papers will be evaluated on the following factors: • References - citations are used within the body of the paper any time you state a fact or idea that is not common knowledge. A reference list is included at the end of the paper. • Precision - you follow all instructions and you answer each part of the assignment. • Breadth - you show broad knowledge of the module’s topic. • Depth - you go into detail to show more critical thought about the specific tasks or questions in the assignment. • Clarity - the extent to which you elaborate and include discussion or examples as asked. • Application - the extent to which you apply the information to a real-life situation related to the assignment, if asked. Before you begin, please review this information about When to Cite Sources http://www.princeton.edu/pr/pub/integrity/pages/cite/ Other resources are available at http://owl.english.purdue.edu/owl/resource/560/02/