Sep 25, 2017 term paper 2

# DONNER PARTY IN THE WINTER OF 1846–1847, ABOUT 90 WAGON TRAIN EMIGRANTS IN THE DONNER PARTY WERE…

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Donner party In the winter of 1846–1847, about 90 wagon train emigrants in the Donner party were unable to cross the Sierra Nevada Mountains of California before winter, and almost half of them starved to death. The data in file donner.txt from Johnson (1996) include some information about each of the members of the party. The variables include Age, the age of the person, Sex, whether male or female, Status, whether the person was a member of a family group, a hired worker for one of the family groups, or a single individual who did not appear to be a hired worker or a member of any of the larger family groups, and Outcome, coded 1 if the person survived and 0 if the person died.

1.       How many men and women were in the Donner Party? What was the survival rate for each sex? Obtain a test that the survival rates were the same against the alternative that they were different. What do you conclude?

2.       Fit the logistic regression model with response Outcome and predictor Age, and provide an interpretation for the fitted coefficient for Age.

3.       Draw the graph of Outcome versus Age, and add both a smooth and a fitted logistic curve to the graph. The logistic regression curve apparently does not match the data: Explain what the differences are and how this failure might be relevant to understanding who survived this tragedy. Fit again, but this time, add a quadratic term in Age. Does the fitted curve now match the smooth more accurately?

4.       Fit the logistic regression model with terms for an intercept, Age, Age2, Sex, and a factor for Status. Provide an interpretation for the parameter estimates for Sex and for each of the parameter estimates for Status. Obtain tests on the basis of the deviance for adding each of the terms to a mean function that already includes the other terms, and summarize the results of each of the tests via a p-value and a one-sentence summary of the results.

5.       Assuming that the logistic regression model provides an adequate summary of the data, give a one-paragraph written summary on the survival of members of the Donner Party.

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